🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still