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Within the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.